With that said, I think there’s a lot of value in studying team numbers in the NFL. So if Patrick Mahomes is responsible for 50 percent of the Chiefs’ points, we can effectively project him at two touchdowns when Vegas thinks the team will score 28 points. If the Chiefs are projected to score 28 points, we can estimate with pretty decent accuracy how many yards they should have, as well as how many yards/touchdowns each individual player should have based on their share of those stats in the past. Vegas lines have even more value once we start to understand market share dynamics. When a team is projected to score 31 points, for example, they’re probably going to score more offensive touchdowns (and also likely more yards to put them in position to score) than a team Vegas has projected to score 21 points. That’s one reason the Vegas lines are an accurate indication of fantasy football production. Whereas an NBA player can produce elite fantasy numbers even if his team doesn’t score a lot of points (through rebounds, blocks, or whatever) or an MLB player can go 4-for-4 even when his offense scores just one run, NFL players rarely post top-tier numbers when their offenses don’t perform well as a whole.īecause of that, I think that offensive points are a good proxy for total fantasy production.
Of all of the daily fantasy sports you can play on DraftKings, I think football is the one through which team success is most accurately reflected on the individual level.
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